Forecast & Discussion 9:52PM Sat March 29th, 2003

Well we have an interesting situation unfolding over the next 24-36 hours. A cold front is pressing through the region now (late Saturday) and this will allow gradually colder air to move in. At the same time a low pressure will develop off the North Carolina coast and spread precip up toward us. We will likely experience a few scattered showers this evening and tomorrow morning, before more concentrated precipitation roles in in the late morning. As the precipitation picks up it will change over to snow.

The models are more consistent with tomorrow, leading to greater accuracy. The ETA is giving us over 0.50" liquid equivalent, most of which will likely fall in the form of snow. The AVN gives us a touch less. Oddly the 00z NGM gives us over 0.75"!. The warm ground will make it difficult to stick, in addition to the strength of the sun for this time of the year. However, snow has stuck and accumulated under these circumstances before...so it is not unheard of. I am favoring the more moist bound ETA, but not as much as the NGM. This will be an elevation storm, like most storms for this time of the year. Lower elevations ( up to 400 feet) will probably range from 2 to 4 inches, with the higher elevations getting 3 to 6 inches. This will be on grassy surfaces...the snow will have more difficulty sticking on the roads. Whether it happens at all during the day will depend on whether the snow gets heavy. However, the roads will likely become snow-covered at the very least as the sun begins to set. The snow will wind down by midnight, and the temperatures will drop.

It will be a very cold and windy day on Monday with temperatures only in the 30s. Fortunately this type of cold air does not last long this time of the year and the temperatures will rebound by mid week.

 

Forecasts are typically made every day, however in the event of unique weather, special posts are made.